Percentages marked “~” or “≈” on this page are approximate external references or illustrations, not measurements of our track. Measurements are labelled “measured” with a date; all percentages show two decimals.
What chasing 15.00% actually costs — vs the desk's steady 4.89% (estimated annualised equivalent over 121 days, ACT/365 Fixed on valuation dates; start valuation time not recorded, not a forecast)
A full year, dated — from a backtest. Every 10.00-15.00% strategy the desk gets asked about, shown with the dated −X% it carries in the backtest. For comparison: the desk's paper book since 2026-06-22, 121 evidenced days (not a full year): max drawdown −0.04% — a measurement, not a backtest. The windows differ, and we say so.
Method (so you can check us)
Same start date, same notional, same window for both sides. The aggressive curves are the lab's real 2024–2026 backtest. The stable curve compounds the desk's REAL conservative-book rate — an honest baseline, not a lowballed strawman. Drawdowns are shown two ways, always labelled: realized and modeled — never blended, never invented.
What it is, plainly
These are the strategies the desk refuses,
shown with their real risk so the choice is informed. Paper / advisory / outside RiskPolicy —
never live-allocated, never on the go-live track. Every figure traces to
data/aggressive_lab/annual_contrast.json —
deterministic, LLM-forbidden.
A year, dated · advisory · paper-only
What chasing 15.00% actually costs — vs the estimated annualised equivalent of the desk’s simulated paper track
published snapshot shown · loading live data…
The honest bottom line
In the backtest, every aggressive book ends the year higher — that is what the headline buys. But the path is paid for in dated drawdowns: the 2025-10 USDe unwind and the 2026-04 rsETH depeg show up on the 15.00% side with dates and depths from the backtest. For comparison: the desk's paper book since 2026-06-22, 121 evidenced days (not a full year): max drawdown −0.04% — a measurement, not a backtest. The trade-off: chasing 15.00% carries its tail; 4.89% (estimated annualised equivalent over 121 days, ACT/365 Fixed on valuation dates; start valuation time not recorded, not a forecast) on paper (track-to-date, near the ~3.40% RWA floor, a reference) is the measured alternative. This is research, not an offer: live capital is not open.
Personal research project in paper validation — not investment advice, not a regulated service, not raising capital; results are simulated. Full disclaimer & risk disclosure →