Percentages marked “~” or “≈” on this page are approximate external references or illustrations, not measurements of our track. Measurements are labelled “measured” with a date; all percentages show two decimals.

Decisions, not offerings

Yield Lab

We judge live stablecoin yield against the RWA floor (~3.40%). Every basis point of spread must be explained by a measurable, accepted risk — or it is refused. We publish the refusals too: that discipline is the product.

How to read this

These are research judgements (evidence level L2 — from public sources as of 2026-07-02), not live returns, an offer, or investment advice. "ADVANCE → paper" means an advisory paper test with no capital, separate from our go-live track. Numbers drift; the source of truth is docs/decision_index.md + docs/underwriting_rubric.md in the public repo.

The fundable candidates (ADVANCE/WATCH) now record an advisory paper track in the Strategy Lab (agent com.spa.strategy_lab_paper, hourly) — no capital, separate from the go-live track. Forward curves accrue over time; this is a simulation at the sourced rate, not realized yield.

The whole map

The honest 2026 stablecoin-yield landscape in one read — the floor, the ADVANCE rungs, the 8.00-12.00% question, the REFUSE archetypes, and the pick-two rule. Whole-map synthesis of every decision: docs/yield_landscape_2026.md in the public repo.

Decisions on live data

PT-sUSDe

Pendle fixed carry

~11.20% ADVANCE → paper

spread over floor ~780 bps

Fixed-to-maturity removes the funding-flip tail; USDe solvency stress-validated (Oct-2025 crash: overcollateralized throughout). Capacity ~single-digit $M/maturity.

PT-USDe

Pendle fixed carry

~8.80% ADVANCE (capped)

spread over floor ~540 bps

Same fundable structure, but same Ethena underlying as PT-sUSDe → shares one cap, not extra diversification (~70.00% of Pendle TVL is Ethena).

Maple syrupUSDC

Institutional credit

~9.00–12.00% WATCH

spread over floor ~180 bps+

Bounded credit — loans overcollateralized 120.00–170.00% at qualified custody (Anchorage/BitGo/Copper), ~3yr zero-loss. DD-gated (v1 lost $50M in 2022).

Centrifuge DROP

RWA senior tranche

~8.00% WATCH

spread over floor ~460 bps

Senior tranche bounded by a real junior (TIN) first-loss buffer + real RWA cash flows. Per-pool off-chain DD required (buffer depth, asset quality).

Aave V3 USDC

Blue-chip lending

~3.45% NO-EDGE

spread over floor ~5 bps

The safest, deepest DeFi lending pays ≈ the floor — no spread to underwrite. Hold the T-bill floor instead. Proof that spread must be earned by risk.

Ethena sUSDe (spot)

Funding carry

~3.90% (was 9.00–11.00%) lean-REFUSE

spread over floor ~46 bps

Floating funding carry is an unbounded tail (funding-flip, CEX-counterparty, ~1.10% reserve). Thin spread today does not pay for the tail.

Curve/Convex LP

Stable LP + emissions

~4.00–10.00% REFUSE

spread over floor mostly emissions

The attractive part is CRV/CVX token emissions — a subsidy, not risk-comp. Strip emissions → base fees ≈ floor-parity. Value what you keep if rewards → 0.

Goldfinch Senior

Uncollat. EM credit

~10.00–14.00% REFUSE (dead)

spread over floor ~660–1060 bps

The tail fired at scale — protocol formally winding down after ~$50M of defaults stranded depositors ~3 years. A "senior" label does not bound a thin first-loss buffer.

Resolv RLP

First-loss tranche

~20.00–30.00% REFUSE (hard)

spread over floor ~1700–2700 bps

The yield is payment to absorb first loss with self-balancing leverage — and the tail already fired: a 2026 mint exploit (~$25M extracted, USDe −39.00% depeg, TVL $400M→$9M).

The non-Ethena ladder

The real 8.00-12.00% in stablecoins is structurally dominated by Ethena (funding-carry). You diversify by asset class, not by chain (hopping to Base just re-routes to Ethena). Here is the honest ladder without Ethena concentration:

RWA floor (T-bill)~$15B deep

~3.40%BASELINE

Steakhouse overcollatimmutable Morpho Blue, ~$6.6B

~4.50–6.50%ADVANCE · Core

Maple syrupUSDCcredit, 160.00%+ collat, 0 defaults >$600M

~4.70%ADVANCE · Core

Centrifuge DROPRWA senior, junior first-loss

~8.00%WATCH

Notional fCashright class, TVL collapsed ~$3M

capacity-dead

The pick-two rule

You can't have all four at once — 8.00-12.00%, diversified, non-Ethena, and at scale. A diversified non-Ethena book (40.00% floor / 30.00% overcollat / 20.00% Maple / 10.00% Centrifuge) blends to ≈4.75% — bounded, ~135 bps over the floor, but not 8.00-12.00%. To reach 8.00-12.00% without Ethena you must concentrate in higher-risk credit. Diversifying away from Ethena is the right risk decision, and it costs yield. That stated trade-off is the product. Full analysis: docs/non_ethena_ladder.md.

The one principle

Yield is inverse to fundability. The biggest headline number (Resolv 20.00–30.00%) drew the hardest refusal — its tail already fired. The smallest explained spreads (~160–780 bps) are the only fundable ones. Spread is bought with accepted risk; it is never free.