The honest frame
How we think about stablecoin yield — honestly
The short version: there is no free yield. Every percent above the risk-free floor is paying you for a risk. Our whole job is to measure that risk honestly — and to refuse when it isn't worth it.
1. Yield is the price of a risk
Tokenized US Treasuries pay ~3.4% at almost no risk — that's the floor. Everything above it, you are being paid for something: leverage, a depeg tail, points/emissions that will end, smart-contract risk. That's not bad by itself — it's bad when someone sells you the top number and stays quiet about what you're being paid to hold.
2. Our moat is measurement and refusal, not the rate
Everyone publishes their wins. Almost nobody publishes what they declined. Our deterministic engine (no AI in the risk path) runs every book through a structural gate and REFUSES when the yield is just compensation for a tail. That refusal log is public and hash-anchored — you can re-derive every verdict.
3. The proven floor vs the shown tail
Our live conservative paper track runs at ~3.3% realized with 0.0% drawdown — real, evidenced, checkable. Up-to-~20% targets exist in the research strategies — but that is paper, and we ALWAYS show the tail (one book lost ~50% through the ETH crash). We never present paper as live and never promise a return. You choose with your eyes open.
4. We never hold your funds
Everything is non-custodial. We never hold keys, move funds, or sign. The desk produces deterministic, evidence-tagged recommendations + a refusal log; you execute, on your own wallet. The worst our advice can do is be something you disagree with.
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Want to see how this maps onto your stables? Take the 60-second snapshot, look at the tiers, or talk to a human.
Personal research project in paper validation — not investment advice, not a regulated service, not raising capital; results are simulated. Full disclaimer & risk disclosure →