Is weETH / eETH safe to hold in a fixed-rate PT book?
ether.fi weETH (wrapped eETH liquid restaking token)
REFUSED on structural grounds: the peg-breakdown tail outweighs the quoted carry. A ~50% advertised implied yield on an LST PT is the price of exactly the peg break that followed, not durable yield.
Structural reason
Structural PEG-breakdown tail (fair_value_engine PEG haircut).
Measured tail
- Peg drawdown: -27.66% (2025-05-08)
- Avoided loss: $27,661 / $100k
- Advertised yield: 50.2% (tail-comp)
- L4 · real ETH-peg drawdown (backtest, conservative lower bound)
SPA is a paper-stage research desk. This is a structural risk verdict, not investment advice. Measured figures are BACKTEST (real ETH-peg history), conservative lower bounds — never presented as realized returns. A CONSIDERED verdict means we do not refuse it on structural grounds — it is not an endorsement, a recommendation, or a claim of safety. The differentiator is what we REFUSE, published transparently.
Personal research project in paper validation — not investment advice, not a regulated service, not raising capital; results are simulated. Full disclaimer & risk disclosure →