Research Strategies
Honest first: the targets shown below (18.2% / 29.24%) are exactly the 10–15%+ return class the core desk REFUSES to hold, because that yield is compensation for tail risk. RS-001 and RS-002 are modelled research projections only — they require point-in-time historical data before strict backtest, and are never held or promised.
Research Projections — Not Historical Evidence, Not Promises
These strategies use placeholder APYs for components without point-in-time historical data. The target returns (18.2% / 29.24%) are modelled research projections — not realized, not promised, not a verified track record. Note: these are exactly the 10–15%+ return class the core desk REFUSES to run in its live book, because that yield is compensation for tail risk. Do not use for capital allocation decisions.
RS-001
Anti-Crisis Basket
Target APY
Allocation
| Component | Weight | APY Target | Data Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| GMX BTC Exposure | 20% | 15% APY target | SOURCE NEEDED |
| GMX ETH Exposure | 10% | 15% APY target | SOURCE NEEDED |
| BTC Stable Pool | 35% | 25% APY target | SOURCE NEEDED |
| ETH Aggressive Pool | 5% | 45% APY target | SOURCE NEEDED |
| Gold Proxy | 15% | 15% APY target | SOURCE NEEDED |
| Stablecoin T1 | 15% | 3% APY target | LIVE DATA |
Strict eligible: 15% (Stablecoin T1 only). 85% of allocation has no point-in-time historical data and cannot be backtested in strict mode.
Label caveat: "Anti-Crisis" requires validation — 70% of this strategy is crypto exposure (GMX BTC/ETH, BTC pool, ETH pool). Gold proxy (15%) provides partial crisis hedge; stablecoin T1 (15%) provides the only guaranteed stable component. In a severe crypto crash, this strategy is expected to underperform relative to its "anti-crisis" label.
RS-002
Cashflow / Concentrated LP
Target APY (Gross)
Net estimate: 12–18% sideways · 3% trending · negative in crash
IL Warning: Concentrated LP at 40% APY gross loses 15–25% to impermanent loss at typical BTC volatility. Net APY is significantly lower than the headline figure.
Allocation
| Component | Weight | Gross APY | Data Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD Concentrated LP | 60% | 40% gross APY | SOURCE NEEDED |
| RWA Concentrated LP | 10% | 18% APY | SOURCE NEEDED |
| Trader Losses Vault | 14% | 20% APY | SOURCE NEEDED |
| Stablecoin Deposit | 16% | 4% APY | LIVE DATA |
Strict eligible: 16% (Stablecoin Deposit only). The 60% BTC/USD Concentrated LP position has no IL-adjusted point-in-time historical series.
Net APY scenarios: The 29.24% figure is gross blended APY before impermanent loss and execution costs. Typical BTC volatility (40% annualized) erodes 10–15% from concentrated LP positions. In trending BTC markets (crash or strong rally), concentrated LP positions go out-of-range and fee income stops — the position effectively holds one asset while the other moves away. Net APY can be negative in severe moves.
Stress Scenario Matrix (MP-1313)
120 stress scenarios (60 per strategy) have been modelled covering BTC crashes, volatility regimes, market regimes, and tail-risk events. These are mathematical projections using placeholder APY assumptions — not evidence-grade results.
RS-001 Scenario Summary
RS-002 Scenario Summary
What's Needed Before These Strategies Go Live
Clean point-in-time historical data for each component
Each allocation leg requires a verifiable APY/return series with source attribution. DeFiLlama or equivalent point-in-time feed required — no placeholder assumptions.
IL-adjusted backtests for all LP components (RS-002)
Concentrated LP positions must be backtested with realistic impermanent loss modelling. Gross APY numbers are not sufficient for allocation decisions.
Venue and protocol identity verification
All unspecified pools (BTC Stable Pool, ETH Aggressive Pool, Gold Proxy, RWA Conc LP, Trader Losses Vault) must be mapped to specific on-chain venues with audit records and TVL history.
Owner acceptance of each strategy's risk classification
RS-001's "Anti-Crisis" label requires explicit acknowledgement that 70% of the allocation is crypto-correlated. RS-002's gross/net gap must be acknowledged in writing before allocation.
Paper trading period (minimum 30 days)
Once strict data is accepted, both strategies must complete at least 30 days of paper trading with live adapter data before any real capital is deployed. Standard GoLiveChecker criteria (ADR-002) apply.
Compare with Live Strategies
If you're looking for strategies currently in paper tracking with verified data, see the live strategy pages below.
Due Diligence Questions?
RS-001 and RS-002 are in research mode and not yet accepting allocations. For questions about the methodology, data requirements, or timeline to strict mode, reach out directly.
Contact: via the request form on /pilot →
Personal research project in paper validation — not investment advice, not a regulated service, not raising capital; results are simulated. Full disclaimer & risk disclosure →