Personal research project — paper-testing & tuning, not raising capital.

Desk cockpit · backtest / test

Backtest

PAPER · advisory · no real capital

Not a final APY number — the FULL history: the equity curve with in-sample and out-of-sample explicitly separated, the drawdowns, and the gate behaviour (where kills fired, what was refused). The counterfactual shows what the deterministic gates SAVED. A degenerate or mock backtest is flagged, never laundered into a clean number. Paper / advisory, live from api.earn-defi.com, fail-closed. Not investment advice.

1 · Configuration

What was actually tested — the period, the assets & venues, the fee model, the AUM tier, and which kill-conditions were enabled. A backtest with the gates OFF is not the same experiment.

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2 · Equity — in-sample vs out-of-sample

The in-sample span (where the strategy was fitted) is solid; the OUT-OF-SAMPLE span (held-out, the honest test) is distinct — dashed and shaded. The RWA-floor benchmark is the reference line. The out-of-sample boundary is never blurred: only the held-out part is a real test.

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3 · Drawdown

The underwater curve — peak-to-trough depth over the run. Shown for the same window as the equity curve.

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4 · Summary

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5 · Monte-Carlo distribution

Block-bootstrap of the real daily yield series → the distribution of annualized return and worst drawdown across resampled paths. p5 / p50 / p95 are the confidence band. A single point estimate hides the tail; the distribution does not.

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6 · What the gates saved

The counterfactual: the same book WITHOUT the kill-conditions vs WITH them. This is the desk’s identity made visible — the deterministic gates are not overhead, they are the edge. If the backend exposes no counterfactual pair, we say so (no fabricated saving).

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⚠ Personal Research Project: SPA is a personal research project in paper validation and tuning. Not a regulated financial service. Not raising capital. Not investment advice.

Paper Trading Disclosure: All performance data reflects simulated trading on a virtual $100,000 USDC portfolio. Current paper APY: ~3.6% (variable, not a forecast). Simulated performance does not account for live slippage, liquidity impact, or smart contract execution risk. We reset our own track: only days with a real cycle log count (currently 10/30, anchor 2026-06-22). Go-live target: ~2026-07-21 — contingent on GoLiveChecker 29/29 (currently 27/29 NOT READY). See /track-record.

Not a Regulated Service: SPA is a personal research project at the paper-testing stage. This does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or a solicitation to invest in any jurisdiction. Consult qualified professionals before making investment decisions.

DeFi-specific risks: Smart contract vulnerabilities and exploits · Protocol insolvency · Stablecoin de-pegging · Oracle manipulation · Regulatory actions · Technology failure. Funds in DeFi protocols are not covered by any investor compensation scheme.